Cuba Is Opening Up. Here's What Moves Next.

Robyn Martin
Apr 3
5 min read

March 15, 2026

Crossing Currents

Cuba Is Opening Up. Here's What Moves Next.

Good morning. While the world watches Hormuz and oil past $100, Cuba is reaching a turning point that matters for anyone who moves agricultural commodities, food products, or medical supplies in the Western Hemisphere.

Protesters torched a Communist Party office in central Cuba yesterday. The government confirmed US talks for the first time. Fifty-one political prisoners are being released. And Raúl Castro's grandson just appeared alongside Díaz-Canel at official events — a transition signal similar to what we saw in Venezuela two months ago.

For operations teams coordinating ag exports, this is a corridor that's already open and growing fast. Here's where it stands and what to plan for.

—Robyn

CUBA: THE CORRIDOR THAT'S ALREADY OPEN

Cuba confirmed this week what everyone suspected — the government is talking to Washington. Díaz-Canel said Friday that conversations are aimed at "seeking solutions through dialogue." He also warned it will take time.

Meanwhile on the ground, things are moving faster than the talks. Protesters in Morón torched the local Communist Party headquarters Saturday. Gunfire was reported. Five people were arrested. University of Havana students held a sit-in after classes were suspended due to energy restrictions. Seven in ten Cubans are skipping daily meals. The country could hit total fuel depletion — "zero hour" — this month if no new shipments arrive.

Cuba released 51 political prisoners Thursday in a goodwill gesture mediated by the Vatican. And on Friday, Raúl Castro's grandson appeared publicly alongside Díaz-Canel for the first time at two official events. Analysts see this as transition groundwork — similar to how Vice President Delcy Rodriguez stepped into power in Venezuela after Maduro's removal.

Trump has signaled a preference for a negotiated outcome over military action in Cuba, while keeping all options visible. Worth noting similar language was used about Venezuela before the January operation.

What's already moving — the freight angle:

US agricultural exports to Cuba hit $476 million in fiscal year 2025, up from $399 million in FY2024. Since the Trade Sanctions Reform Act of 2000, over $8 billion in US ag products have shipped to Cuba. Poultry leads at $307 million annually, followed by dairy, soybean meal, and pork — with pork exports doubling year over year.

This trade is legal under the TSRA. The rules: cash-in-advance payment only (no US credit to Cuba), BIS licensing per shipment, exports routed through Alimport (Cuba's sole government import entity). Medical supplies are also exempt under the Cuban Democracy Act.

What changes if Cuba opens further:

Right now, US exporters can't offer credit terms, can't use government market development programs, and can't import Cuban agricultural products. If talks produce a deal — even a partial one — any loosening of those restrictions opens the lane wider. For comparison, the Dominican Republic (similar population and income) imports $1.1 billion annually in US ag products versus Cuba's $476 million. There's a lot of room to grow.

Action items:

If you ship poultry, dairy, grain, soybean products, or pork and you're not looking at Cuba, you're leaving money on the table. The compliance paperwork is heavier than a normal export but the payment terms are the safest in the world — cash before the ship sails. Map BIS licensing requirements now. Talk to your trade lawyer about TSRA-compliant export structures. And if you need help coordinating the freight side, that's what we do.

HORMUZ UPDATE: OIL PAST $100, STRAIT STILL CLOSED

Brent crude closed the week above $103 — past $100 for the first time since 2022. WTI is at $99. California gasoline prices crossed $5 per gallon. The national average hit $3.11 and climbing.

Here's what changed this week:

The IEA coordinated release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves across 32 member states on March 11. That's roughly four days of global consumption — a bridge, not a solution. Saudi Arabia cut production by 20% after two offshore fields shut down. Gulf Arab states have cut output by at least 10 million barrels per day collectively, and the IEA warned that unless shipping resumes, further cuts are coming.

Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, declared the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a "tool to pressure the enemy." Iran said Friday the strait will not reopen to US ships. Defense Secretary Hegseth said US and Israeli strikes have hit 15,000 targets and that Iran's ability to threaten shipping is being degraded.

A few ships are trickling through. On March 11, the first Chinese-flagged vessel transited the strait since the closure. A Turkish ship was approved by Iran on March 13. Two Indian gas carriers and a Saudi tanker carrying 1 million barrels for India also passed. But this is single-digit traffic in a waterway that normally handles 60+ vessels per day.

The Navy escort program is still not operational. Energy Secretary Wright told CNBC the Navy is "not ready" to escort tankers. Treasury Secretary Bessent said escorts would begin "as soon as militarily possible." Hegseth said the only thing preventing transit is "Iran shooting at shipping."

What this means for your freight:

Your transatlantic lanes are still holding. North Atlantic crossings are unaffected. But air freight surcharges are climbing as jet fuel tracks Brent past $100. Diesel is rising and fuel surcharge adjustments are coming — if you haven't locked your FSA agreements, you're about to pay more.

Carriers are rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to Asia-Europe transits. Container rates on those lanes are spiking. If your supply chain touches Asia, plan for extended lead times and higher costs through at least Q2.

BOTTOM LINE

Cuba is opening up. The ag export corridor is already worth $476 million a year and growing. Hormuz is still closed and oil is past $100. Your transatlantic lanes are holding but fuel surcharges are about to move.

Rural Exports works with execution partners and fellow consultants in aerospace, defense, energy, and agricultural logistics across the UK, Europe, South Africa, and Asia. If your team is dealing with anything in this issue — ag commodity exports, transatlantic freight, fuel surcharge planning, or corridors with heavy compliance requirements — we can put you in touch with people who've worked these lanes firsthand.

The freight moves. Plan accordingly.

—Robyn Martin | Rural Exports robynm@rural-logistics.com | (945) 403-1407

SOURCES & FURTHER READING

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📧 robynm@rural-logistics.com 📞 (945) 403-1407 🌐 rural-logistics.com

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