Every Major Container Carrier Just Suspended Strait of Hormuz Transits. Here's What It Means for Your Freight.

Crossing Currents

Transatlantic Freight Intelligence for Strategic Shippers

Issue #13 | March 1, 2026

Brought to you by Rural Logistics

Wow! I guess y'all have heard the news- the freight environment shifted dramatically this weekend. Following military strikes in the Middle East, every major container carrier has suspended Strait of Hormuz transits. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM are also rerouting away from the Suez Canal and around Africa. War risk insurance premiums are climbing. Oil markets open tonight, and the downstream effects on fuel surcharges, transit times, and capacity will unfold over the coming days. Transatlantic shippers were not the primary target of this disruption — but you will feel the secondary effects. Here's what matters this week.

—Robyn Martin

Operations Watch

Strait of Hormuz Disruption: What Transatlantic Shippers Need to Know

The immediate disruption is concentrated in the Persian Gulf and Asia-Middle East lanes — but the ripple effects reach your transatlantic routes. Here's the chain of impact.

What happened: Maersk suspended all Strait of Hormuz crossings and halted Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb sailings, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM followed with similar measures. MSC has suspended all cargo bookings to the Middle East entirely.

Why this matters for EU–U.S. lanes: Transatlantic routes don't transit the Strait of Hormuz. Your containers still move through the North Atlantic. But three secondary effects will hit your cost structure:

1. Fuel surcharges. Brent crude closed Friday at around $72.87/barrel. Analysts project a $5–10 jump at minimum when markets open Sunday night — potentially $10–20 without signs of de-escalation. Bunker fuel costs feed directly into carrier surcharges — expect Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) revisions within 7–14 days if prices hold.

2. Vessel redeployment. Carriers that were just beginning to return ships to Suez Canal routes have now reversed course. Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds 10–14 days to Asia-Europe transits. When vessels are tied up on longer routes, carriers pull capacity from secondary trades — and the transatlantic is historically the first lane to lose ships when capacity tightens elsewhere.

3. War risk insurance. Premiums for Gulf transits have already spiked. Even if your cargo doesn't touch the region, broader marine insurance markets tend to adjust upward during periods of active conflict near major shipping lanes.

Air freight consideration: Multiple Middle Eastern countries have reported airspace closures or restricted zones. If your air shipments route through Gulf hubs — Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi — check with your forwarder on rerouting. Direct EU–U.S. air lanes are unaffected, but connecting flights through Middle Eastern hubs may face delays or cancellations.

Tariff Update

Section 122: One Week In

The 15% global surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 took effect February 24. One week later, here's where things stand:

The proclaimed rate is 15%, but as of last weekend CBP guidance confirmed the system was still collecting at 10%. The formal proclamation raising it to 15% had not been issued when that guidance was released. If you imported goods this past week, verify with your broker which rate was actually assessed.

Key reminders: Products already under Section 232 tariffs (steel, aluminum, copper, autos, lumber) are excluded from Section 122. USMCA-qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico are exempt. The surcharge expires July 24, 2026 unless Congress extends it.

The EU-US trade deal (Turnberry Deal) remains in limbo. The European Parliament postponed its vote and EU lawmakers are scheduled to reconvene March 4 to reassess. EU Trade Chief Sefcovic is pushing for a March plenary vote, but this weekend's military escalation could further complicate the timeline.

If you paid IEEPA tariffs in 2025: Refund eligibility is now established by the Supreme Court ruling, but no refund mechanism has been announced. Document everything. Retain your entry summaries, proof of payment, and classification records. Realistically, companies are looking at a 12–36 month timeline depending on CIT guidance and CBP capacity. Your customs broker should be building your file now.

What to Do This Week

This is a checklist, not a forecast. The situation is fluid. Focus on what you can control.

Immediate (Monday–Tuesday):

• Contact your ocean carrier or forwarder for updated transit time estimates on EU–U.S. lanes

• Check if any of your air freight routes pass through Middle Eastern hubs — confirm direct routing or alternatives

• Verify your Section 122 duty rate with your customs broker (10% vs. 15% may still be in flux)

This week:

• Review your fuel surcharge clauses — if your contract has a BAF adjustment mechanism, understand the trigger thresholds

• If you have IEEPA refund eligibility, ensure your broker is compiling documentation now

• Lock FX rates on any open EUR or GBP-denominated contracts before markets fully price in the disruption

Watch for:

• Oil futures pricing Sunday night / Monday morning — this sets the tone for surcharge adjustments

• EU Parliament March 4 session — any movement on the Turnberry Deal affects your medium-term tariff structure

• Carrier announcements on capacity changes to transatlantic services — vessel redeployment typically follows within 2–3 weeks of major rerouting events

Bottom Line

The transatlantic lane itself is physically unaffected by the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Your containers still cross the North Atlantic. But the cost inputs underneath those shipments — fuel, insurance, carrier capacity allocation — are all shifting. The soft rate environment that has favored shippers for months may tighten faster than expected if carriers pull vessels to cover longer Asia-Europe routes around Africa.

This is not a week to wait and see. Talk to your forwarder. Talk to your customs broker. Confirm your fuel surcharge exposure. And if you have goods on the water right now, verify their routing.

The rules are moving faster than the freight — again.

Forward this to someone on your team who coordinates transatlantic shipments.

Global events → logistics decisions. That's the brief.

Questions? Reply anytime — I read them. —Robyn Martin | Rural Logistics | robynm@rural-logistics.com

Need help understanding how these disruptions affect your specific lanes? Working through tariff classification changes or IEEPA refund documentation? Evaluating whether your transatlantic logistics strategy needs adjusting? DM me.

Crossing Currents provides general logistics intelligence based on industry expertise and publicly available information. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute operational, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult qualified professionals for specific compliance and tax guid